In all fields, the significance of a reliable and accurate predictive model is almost unquantifiable. With deep domain knowledge, models derived from first principles typically outperforms other models in terms of reliability and accuracy. When it may become a cumbersome or an unachievable task to build or validate such models of complex (non-linear) systems, machine learning techniques are employed to build predictive models. However, the accuracy of such techniques is not only dependent on the hyper-parameters of the chosen algorithm, but also on the amount and quality of data. This paper investigates the application of classical time series forecasting approaches for the reliable prognostics of technical systems, where black box machine learning techniques might not successfully be employed given insufficient amount of data and where first principles models are infeasible due to lack of domain specific data. Forecasting by analogy, forecasting by analytical function fitting, an exponential smoothing forecasting method and the long short-term memory (LSTM) are evaluated and compared against the ground truth data. As a case study, the methods are applied to predict future crack lengths of riveted aluminium plates under cyclic loading. The performance of the predictive models is evaluated based on error metrics leading to a proposal of when to apply which forecasting approach.
PHM 2019, crack propagation, forecasting, unevenly spaced time series, step ahead prediction, short time series
The Prognostic and Health Management Society advocates open-access to scientific data and uses a Creative Commons license for publishing and distributing any papers. A Creative Commons license does not relinquish the author’s copyright; rather it allows them to share some of their rights with any member of the public under certain conditions whilst enjoying full legal protection. By submitting an article to the International Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, the authors agree to be bound by the associated terms and conditions including the following:
As the author, you retain the copyright to your Work. By submitting your Work, you are granting anybody the right to copy, distribute and transmit your Work and to adapt your Work with proper attribution under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States license. You assign rights to the Prognostics and Health Management Society to publish and disseminate your Work through electronic and print media if it is accepted for publication. A license note citing the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License as shown below needs to be placed in the footnote on the first page of the article.
First Author et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.